E: Chinese Emissions and the Carbon Budget

In the Paris Agreement, more than 190 nations agreed to “hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels” According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, cumulative global CO₂ emissions from the beginning of 2020 must be less than (i) 900 Gt, to have an 83% chance of meeting the 2°C (3.6°F) goal, and (ii) 300 Gt, to have an 83% chance of meeting the 1.5°C (2.7°F) goal. ⁶⁴

China’s emissions will have a significant impact on the world’s ability to achieve these goals. For example, if China were to keep emitting CO₂ at its current pace of 10–11 Gt per year, it alone will use up one-third of the global 2°C carbon budget by 2050 and one-third of the global 1.5°C carbon budget by 2032. ⁶⁵ If China’s CO₂ emissions increase during the 2020s, these goals become even harder to reach.

Of course, industrialized countries emitted far more CO₂ than China during the past century. (CO₂ stays in the atmosphere for many years once emitted.) Industrialized countries are responsible for most of the human-caused CO₂ currently in the atmosphere and, in part for that reason, have agreed to take the lead in cutting emissions in the decades ahead. But however much other countries limit emissions in the decades ahead, China’s emissions will have a significant impact on the world’s ability to meet the agreed climate goals.